Before we go jumping to conclusions, eat a step back and suppose this via. Like most of the varied ways the world is going to end in December 21, 2012, the possibility of the Sun blasting out a tremendous, Planet-damaging solar flare is very attractive to the doomsayers out there. Nevertheless let's host a look at what truly takes place during an Planet-directed solar flare celebration, the Planet is actually very well protected. Although some satellites may not be…The Earth has evolved in a highly radioactive atmosphere. The Sun constantly fires high-energy particles from its magnetically dominated surface as the solar wind. During solar maximum (when the Sun is at its most active), the Earth might be unlucky adequate to become staring down the barrel of an explosion who've the energy of 100 billion Hiroshima-sized atomic bombs. This explosion is known as a solar flare and the effects of which might lead to problems here on Earth.Before we look at the Planet-side effects, let's have a look at the Sun and briefly understand why it gets as a result angry every 11 years or therefore.The Solar CycleFirst and foremost, the Sun has a normal cycle who've a period of approximately 11 years. During the lifetime of each cycle, the magnetic field lines of the Sun are dragged across the solar physical by differential rotation at the solar equator. This means that the equator is spinning faster than the magnetic poles. As this continues, solar plasma drags the magnetic field lines round the Sun, causing stress and a build up of power (an illustration of this is pictured). As magnetic energy increases, kinks in the magnetic flux form, forcing them to the surface. These kinks are known for the main reason that coronal loops which become more a multitude of during periods of high solar activity.This is where the sunspots come in. For the main reason that coronal loops continue to pop up above the surface, sunspots appear in addition, often located at the loop foot points. Coronal loops have the effect of pushing the hotter surface layers of the Sun (the photosphere and chromosphere) aside, exposing the cooler convection state (the reasons why the solar surface and setting is hotter than the solar interior is down to the coronal heating phenomenon). Since magnetic energy builds up, we could expect more and more magnetic flux to be forced together. This is each time a phenomenon known as magnetic reconnection takes place.Reconnection is the trigger for solar flares of various sizes. Because previously reported, solar flares from "nanoflares" to "X-class flares" are very energetic events. Granted, the most important flares my generate sufficient energy for 100 billion atomic explosions, however don't let this huge figure concern you. For a commence, this flare occurs in the low corona, right near the solar surface. That's nearly 100 million miles away (1AU). The Earth is nowhere close to the blast.Since the solar magnetic field lines release an enormous quantity of power, solar plasma is accelerated and confined within the magnetic setting (solar plasma is superheated particles like protons, electrons and some lighting elements such because helium nuclei). As the plasma particles interact, X-rays may be generated if the conditions are right and bremsstrahlung is possible. (Bremsstrahlung occurs when charged particles interact, resulting in X-ray emission.) This may create an X-ray flare.The Problem who've X-ray Solar FlaresThe prime problem who have an X-ray flare is that we get little warning when it is going to happen since X-rays travel at the speed of lights (amongst the record breaking 2003 solar flares is pictured left). X-rays from an X-class flare will also reach the Earth in around eight minutes. For the main reason that X-rays hit our surroundings, they may be absorbed in the outermost layer called the ionosphere. As you possibly will guess from the name, this is a highly charged, reactive situation, full of ions (atomic nuclei, and free electrons).During powerful solar events such as flares, rates of ionization between X-rays and atmospheric gases increase in the D and E region layers of the ionosphere. There is a sudden surge in electron production in these layers. These electrons may possibly bring about interference to the passage of radio waves via the atmosphere, absorbing short wave radio signals (in the high frequency range), probably blocking global communications. These events are known because "Sudden Ionospheric Disturbances" (or SIDs) and they become commonplace during periods of high solar activity. Interestingly, the increase in electron density during a SID boosts the propagation of Very Low Frequency (VLF) radio, a phenomenon scientists use to measure the intensity of X-rays coming from the Sun.Coronal Mass Ejections? X-ray solar flare emissions are only part of the story. If the conditions are right, a coronal mass ejection (CME) can be created at the internet site of the flare (though either phenomenon can occur independently). CMEs are slower than the propagation of X-rays, but their global effects here on Planet could be more problematic. They may not travel at the speed of illumination, still they nonetheless travel swift; they might travel at a rate of 2 million miles per hour (three.2 million km/hr), meaning they may reach us in a matter of hours.This is anywhere much effort is being put into space weather prediction. We have a handful of spacecraft sitting between the Earth and the Sun at the Earth-Sun Lagrangian (L1) point who have sensors on board to measure the power and intensity of the solar wind. Should a CME pass via their location, energetic particles and the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) may possibly be measured directly. One mission called the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) sits in the L1 point and provides scientists who have up to an hour notice on the approach of a CME. ACE teams up who have the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) and the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO), thus CMEs possibly will be tracked from the lower corona into interplanetary space, through the L1 point toward Planet. These solar missions are actively working together to supply space agencies that have advanced notice of an Earth-directed CME.Thus what if a CME reaches Planet? For a begin, much depends on the magnetic configuration of the IMF (from the Sun) and the geomagnetic field of the Planet (the magnetosphere). Typically speaking, if both magnetic fields are aligned that have polarities pointing in the same direction, it's highly probable that the CME will be repelled by the magnetosphere. In this case, the CME will also slide past the Planet, causing some pressure and distortion on the magnetosphere, still otherwise passing without a problem. But, if the magnetic field lines are in an anti-parallel configuration (i.e. magnetic polarities in opposite directions), magnetic reconnection may occur at the leading edge of the magnetosphere.In this bash, the IMF and magnetosphere will also merge, connecting the Earth's magnetic field that have the Sun's. This sets the scene for the most awe inspiring events in nature: the aurora.Satellites in PerilSince the CME magnetic field connects with the Earth's, high energy particles are injected into the magnetosphere. Due to solar wind pressure, the Sun's magnetic field lines will even fold round the Earth, sweeping behind our planet. The particles injected in the "dayside" shall be funneled into the polar regions of the Planet where they interact with our environment, generating light as aurorae. During this time, the Van Allen belt may also in addition become "super-charged", creating a territory round the Planet that might bring about problems to unprotected astronauts and any unshielded satellites. For more on the harm that could be caused to astronauts and spacecraft, check out "Radiation Sickness, Cellular Harm and Increased Cancer Risk for Long-term Missions to Mars" and "New Transistor Might Side-Step Space Radiation Problem."Since if the radiation from the Van Allen belt was not an adequate amount of, satellites could succumb to the threat of an expanding situation. Since you'd expect, as if the Sun hits the Planet that have X-rays and CMEs, there will be inevitable heating and global expansion of the setting, most likely encroaching into satellite orbital altitudes. If left unchecked, an aero braking effect on satellites might lead to them to slow and drop in altitude. Aero braking has been used extensively since a space flight tool to slow spacecraft down when being inserted into orbit around another planet, but this will even plans an adverse effect on satellites orbiting Planet since any slowing of velocity might bring about it to re-enter the situation.We Suppose the Effects on the Ground TooThough satellites are on the front line, if there's a powerful surge in energetic particles entering the situation, we may believe the adverse effects down here on Planet also. Due to the X-ray generation of electrons in the ionosphere, some forms of communication may become patchy (or be removed all together), however this is just not all that could happen. Particularly in high-latitude regions, a limitless electric current, known for the reason that an "electrojet", may form through the ionosphere by these incoming particles. That have an electric current comes a magnetic field. Depending on the intensity of the solar storm, currents is possibly induced down here on the ground, in all probability overloading national power grids. On March 13th 1989, six million people lost power in the Quebec area of Canada after a tremendous increase in solar activity caused a surge from ground-induced currents. Quebec was paralyzed for nine hours whilst engineers worked on a technique to the dilemma.Could Our Sun Produce a Killer Flare?The short answer to this is "no".The longer answer is a little more involved. Whilst a solar flare from out Sun, aimed directly at us, could cause secondary problems such because satellite damage and injury to unprotected astronauts and blackouts, the flare itself is not powerful adequate to destroy Earth, of course not in 2012. I dare say, in the far future when the Sun begins to run out of fuel and swell into a red giant, it may possibly be a bad era for life on Earth, nonetheless we have a a small number of billion years to wait for that to happen. There might even be the possibility of quite a lot of X-class flares being launched and by pure bad luck we may get hit by a series of CMEs and X-ray bursts, however none shall be powerful to overcome our magnetosphere, ionosphere and thick situation below."Killer" solar flares host been realized on other stars. In 2006, NASA's Quick observatory saw the biggest stellar flare ever noticed 135 lights-years away. Estimated to have unleashed an power of 50 million trillion atomic bombs, the II Pegasi flare may also have wiped out most existence on Earth if our Sun fired X-rays from a flare of that power at us. But, our Sun isn't II Pegasi. II Pegasi is a violent red giant star that have a binary partner in a very close orbit. It is believed the gravitational interaction with its binary partner and the fact II Pegasi is a red giant is the root cause behind this energetic flare bash.Doomsayers point to the Sun since a possible Planet-killer source, nevertheless the fact remains that our Sun is a very stable star. It doesn't plans a binary partner (like II Pegasi), it has a predictable cycle (of approximately 11 years) and there is no evidence that our Sun contributed to any mass extinction event in the past through an enormous Planet-directed flare. Very large solar flares have been observed (such for the main reason that the 1859 Carrington white lights flare)… still we're but here.In an added twist, solar physicists are surprised by the lack of solar activity at the start of this 24th solar cycle, leading to some scientists to wonder we may possibly be on the verge of another Maunder minimum and "Little Ice Age". This is in stark contrast to NASA solar physicist's 2006 prediction that this cycle will be a "doozy".This potential clients me to conclude that we nonetheless host a long technique to go when predicting solar flare events. Even though space weather prediction is improving, it is going to be a few years yet until we might read the Sun appropriately an adequate amount of to say who've any certainty just how active a solar cycle is going to be. Therefore, regardless of prophecy, prediction or myth, there is no physical strategy to say that the Planet is going to be hit by any flare, let alone a big one in  21, 2012. Even if a big flare did hit us, it won't be an extinction celebration. Yes, satellites might be damaged, causing secondary problems such as a GPS loss (which can disrupt air traffic control for example) or national energy grids is sometimes overwhelmed by auroral electrojets, nonetheless nothing more intense than that.Still hold on, to sidestep this issue, doomsayers now tell us that a large solar flare may even hit us just because the Planet's geomagnetic field weakens and reverses, leaving us unprotected from the ravages of a CME… The reasons why this just isn't going to happen in 2012 is worthy of its own article. Hence, look out for the next December 21, 2012 article "December 21, 2012: No Geomagnetic Reversal".We could be in for an enormous firework display in 2012. The Sun is going to be approaching the peak of its 11-year cycle, called "solar maximum", therefore we may possibly expect a number of solar activity. Some predictions put the solar maximum of Solar Cycle 24 even more energetic than the last solar maximum in 2002-2003 (remember all those record breaking X-class flares?). Solar physicists are already getting excited about this next cycle and new prediction methods are being put to good use. Nonetheless should we be worried?According to one of the several Doomsday scenarios we have been presented with in the run-up to the Mayan Prophecy-fueled "end of the world" in the year 2012, this scenario is really based on some science. What's more, there is probably some correlation between the 11-year solar cycle and the period cycles seen in the Mayan calendar, perhaps this ancient civilization understood how the Sun's magnetism undergoes polarity changes every decade or in consequence? And also, religious texts (such for the reason that the Bible) say that we're due for a day of judgment, involving lots of fire and brimstone. Therefore it looks like we're going to get roasted alive by our closest star on Dec. 21st, December 21, 2012!Before we go jumping to conclusions, consume a step back and assume this via. Like many of the varied ways the planet is going to end in December 21, 2012, the likelihood of the Sun blasting out a tremendous, Earth-damaging solar flare is very attractive to the doomsayers out there. Nevertheless let's host a look at what really takes place during an Earth-directed solar flare bash, the Earth is really very well protected. Although some satellites may not be… The Planet has evolved in a highly radioactive environment. The Sun constantly fires high-energy particles from its magnetically dominated surface as the solar wind. During solar maximum (when the Sun is at its most active), the Earth is possibly unlucky enough to become staring down the barrel of an explosion with the power of 100 billion Hiroshima-sized atomic bombs. This explosion is known for the reason that a solar flare and the effects of which possibly will bring about problems here on Earth.Before we look at the Earth-side effects, let's host a look at the Sun and briefly understand why it gets in consequence angry every 11 years or therefore.The Solar CycleFirst and foremost, the Sun has a normal cycle who've a period of approximately 11 years. During the lifetime of each cycle, the magnetic field lines of the Sun are dragged round the solar body by differential rotation at the solar equator. This means that the equator is spinning faster than the magnetic poles. Because this continues, solar plasma drags the magnetic field lines across the Sun, causing stress and a build up of power (an illustration of this is pictured). For the main reason that magnetic energy increases, kinks in the magnetic flux form, forcing them to the surface. These kinks are known for the reason that coronal loops which become more a large number of during periods of high solar activity.This is anywhere the sunspots come in. Because coronal loops continue to pop up above the surface, sunspots appear also, often located at the loop foot hints. Coronal loops host the effect of pushing the hotter surface layers of the Sun (the photosphere and chromosphere's) aside, exposing the cooler convection area (the reasons why the solar surface and setting is hotter than the solar interior is down to the coronal heating phenomenon). Since magnetic energy builds up, we possibly will expect more and more magnetic flux to be forced together. This is whenever a phenomenon known because magnetic reconnection transpires.Reconnection is the trigger for solar flares of countless sizes. Because previously reported, solar flares from "nanoflares" to "X-class flares" are very energetic events. Granted, the most important flares my generate enough power for 100 billion atomic explosions, but do not let this huge figure concern you. For a begin, this flare takes place in the low corona, right near the solar surface. That's nearly 100 million miles away (1AU). The Earth is nowhere close to the blast.As the solar magnetic field lines release a massive amount of power, solar plasma is accelerated and confined within the magnetic surroundings (solar plasma is superheated particles like protons, electrons and some light elements such since helium nuclei). Since the plasma particles engage, X-rays may be generated if the conditions are right and bremsstrahlung is possible. (Bremsstrahlung occurs when charged particles engage, resulting in X-ray emission.) This may create an X-ray flare.The Dilemma that have X-ray Solar FlaresThe principal problem who have an X-ray flare is that we get little forewarning when it's going to happen because X-rays travel at the speed of lighting (one of the record breaking 2003 solar flares is pictured left). X-rays from an X-class flare will also reach the Planet in around eight minutes. For the main reason that X-rays hit our atmosphere, they're absorbed in the outermost layer called the ionosphere. For the main reason that you might guess from the name, this is a highly charged, reactive surroundings, full of ions (atomic nuclei, and free electrons).During powerful solar events such since flares, rates of ionization between X-rays and atmospheric gases increase in the D and E territory layers of the ionosphere. There is a sudden surge in electron production in these layers. These electrons may possibly result in interference to the passage of radio waves through the atmosphere, absorbing short wave radio signals (in the high frequency range), most likely blocking global communications. These events are known for the main reason that "Sudden Ionospheric Disturbances" (or SIDs) and they become commonplace during periods of high solar activity. Interestingly, the increase in electron density during a SID boosts the propagation of Very Low Frequency (VLF) radio, a phenomenon scientists use to measure the intensity of X-rays coming from the Sun.Coronal Mass Ejections? X-ray solar flare emissions are only part of the story. If the conditions are right, a coronal mass ejection (CME) can be formed at the web site of the flare (though either phenomenon possibly will occur independently). CMEs are slower than the propagation of X-rays, however their global effects here on Earth possibly will be more problematic. They may not travel at the speed of illumination, nonetheless they however travel speedy; they can travel at a rate of 2 million miles per hour (3.2 million km/hr), meaning they may reach us in a subject of hours.This is anywhere much effort is being put into space weather prediction. We host a handful of spacecraft sitting between the Earth and the Sun at the Earth-Sun Lagrangian (L1) point who've sensors on board to measure the power and intensity of the solar wind. Should a CME pass via their location, energetic particles and the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) possibly will be measured directly. One mission called the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) sits in the L1 point and provides scientists that have up to an hour notice on the approach of a CME. ACE teams up who have the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) and the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO), therefore CMEs could be tracked from the lower corona into interplanetary space, by means of the L1 point toward Planet. These solar missions are actively working together to offer space agencies with advanced notice of an Planet-directed CME.Hence what if a CME reaches Planet? For a commence, much depends on the magnetic configuration of the IMF (from the Sun) and the geomagnetic field of the Planet (the magnetosphere). Customarily speaking, if both magnetic fields are aligned that have polarities pointing in exactly the same direction, it's highly probable that the CME will be repelled by the magnetosphere. In this case, the CME may also slide past the Earth, causing some pressure and distortion on the magnetosphere, nonetheless otherwise passing without a dilemma. Nevertheless, if the magnetic field lines are in an anti-parallel configuration (i.e. magnetic polarities in opposite directions), magnetic reconnection may occur at the leading edge of the magnetosphere.In this event, the IMF and magnetosphere will even merge, connecting the Planet's magnetic field who have the Sun's. This sets the scene for the best awe inspiring events in nature: the aurora.Satellites in PerilBecause the CME magnetic field connects that have the Earth's, high power particles are injected into the magnetosphere. Due to solar wind pressure, the Sun's magnetic field lines may also fold across the Earth, sweeping behind our world. The particles injected in the "day side" will be funneled into the polar regions of the Planet everywhere they engage who've our situation, generating lights since aurorae. During this time, the Van Allen belt will also in addition become "super-charged", creating a territory round the Planet that could lead to problems to unprotected astronauts and any unshielded satellites. For more on the harm that may possibly be caused to astronauts and spacecraft, check out "Radiation Sickness, Cellular Damage and Increased Cancer Risk for Long-term Missions to Mars" and "New Transistor Might Side-Step Space Radiation Dilemma."Because if the radiation from the Van Allen belt wasn't an adequate amount of, satellites can succumb to the threat of an expanding surroundings. For the main reason that you'd expect, since if the Sun hits the Planet who have X-rays and CMEs, there is going to be inevitable heating system and global expansion of the setting, most likely encroaching into satellite orbital altitudes. If left unchecked, an aero braking effect on satellites can cause them to slow and drop in altitude. Aero braking has been used extensively since a space flight tool to slow spacecraft down when being inserted into orbit around another planet, however this may also have an adverse effect on satellites orbiting Earth for the main reason that any slowing of velocity could cause it to re-enter the atmosphere.We Feel the Effects on the Ground TooAlthough satellites are on the front line, if there is a powerful surge in energetic particles entering the situation, we may believe the adverse effects down here on Planet in addition. Due to the X-ray generation of electrons in the ionosphere, some forms of communication may become patchy (or be removed all together), nevertheless this is not all that may possibly happen. Particularly in high-latitude regions, a vast electric current, known because an "electrojet", may form through the ionosphere by these incoming particles. That have an electric current comes a magnetic field. Depending on the intensity of the solar storm, currents may perhaps be induced down here on the ground, possibly overloading national energy grids. On March 13th 1989, six million individuals lost power in the Quebec area of Canada after an enormous increase in solar activity caused a surge from ground-induced currents. Quebec was paralyzed for nine hours whilst engineers worked on a approach to the dilemma.Could Our Sun Produce a Killer Flare?The short answer to this is "no".The longer answer is a little more involved. Whilst a solar flare from out Sun, aimed directly at us, possibly will bring about secondary problems such since satellite damage and injury to unprotected astronauts and blackouts, the flare itself is just not powerful an adequate amount of to destroy Earth, naturally not in 2012. I dare say, in the far future when the Sun begins to run out of fuel and swell into a red giant, it possibly will be a bad era for existence on Planet, still we plans a few billion years to wait for that to happen. There possibly will even be the probability of quite a few X-class flares being launched and by pure bad luck we may get hit by a series of CMEs and X-ray bursts, nevertheless none shall be powerful to overcome our magnetosphere, ionosphere and thick situation below."Killer" solar flares have been noticed on other stars. In 2006, NASA's Speedy observatory saw the largest stellar flare ever noticed 135 light-years away. Estimated to plans unleashed an energy of 50 million trillion atomic bombs, the II Pegasi flare will have wiped out most existence on Earth if our Sun fired X-rays from a flare of that power at us. Still, our Sun is just not II Pegasi. II Pegasi is a violent red giant star who've a binary partner in a very close orbit. It's believed the gravitational interaction who have its binary partner and the fact II Pegasi is a red giant is the root lead to behind this energetic flare bash.Doomsayers point to the Sun since a possible Earth-killer source, nonetheless the fact remains that our Sun is a very stable star. It doesn't host a binary partner (like II Pegasi), it has a predictable cycle (of approximately 11 years) and there is no evidence that our Sun contributed to any mass extinction bash in the past by means of a tremendous Earth-directed flare. Very large solar flares plans been observed (such since the 1859 Carrington white lighting flare)… but we're however here.In an added twist, solar physicists are surprised by the lack of solar activity at the commence of this 24th solar cycle, leading to a scientists to wonder we may possibly be on the verge of another Maunder minimum and "Little Ice Age". This is in stark contrast to NASA solar physicist's 2006 prediction that this cycle is going to be a "doozy".This potential clients me to conclude that we nevertheless have a long technique to go when predicting solar flare events. Though space weather prediction is improving, it shall be a a small number of years yet until we could read the Sun correctly an adequate amount of to say who have any certainty just how active a solar cycle shall be. As a result, regardless of prophecy, prediction or myth, there is no body strategy to say that the Planet will be hit by any flare, let alone a big one in December 21, 2012. Even if a big flare did hit us, it won't be an extinction bash. Yes, satellites is possibly damaged, causing secondary problems such since a GPS loss (which possibly will disrupt air traffic control for example) or national energy grids may be overwhelmed by auroral electro jets, however nothing more intense than that.Still hold on, to sidestep this topic, doomsayers now tell us that a large solar flare will even hit us just since the Planet's geomagnetic field weakens and reverses, leaving us unprotected from the ravages of a CME… The reasons why this isn't going to happen in December 21, 2012 is worthy of its own article. Therefore, look out for the next 2012 article "2012: No Geomagnetic Reversal".